Electricity consumption forecast up to 2015
The expected average annual growth rate of electricity consumption on the territory of the Republic of Serbia, in the period from 2008 to 2015, is about 0.9% and peak load is about 0.5%. Relatively stable growth of electricity consumption in industry of about 1.8% per year and somewhat lower growth in low voltage consumption of about 1.4% per year, will lead to reduction in consumption inequality.The final electricity consumption will be about 31,195 GWh, and peak load around 7.000MW in 2015.
Forecast is based on estimates of macroeconomic parameters of economic development of the Republic of Serbia up to 2015, taking into account the planned effects for the rationalization of electricity consumption.
With continued implementation of long-term contract with the Electric Power Industry of Montenegro, 1,071 GWh per year (equitable consumption) will be delivered, in exchange for the use of HPP Piva with an annual generation of 760 GWh (peak consumption). Energy consumption for pumping and usage for the purpose of generation is planned to be 1,100 GWh per year.
In conditions of execution of foreseen rehabilitations, modernizations in all parts of the system on existing facilities and replacement of mines in which reserves are being depleted, electric power balances show a tendency of continuous growth of the lack of electricity by 2014. This shortfall can be covered by import or intensive investments into new generation capacities.
Rationalization of electricity consumption
Rationalization of consumption is the first, the most urgent and the most economical measure to balance the needs with EPS generation capacities. Basic measures to rationalize consumption are:
- electricity price increase and correction of the basic power products price disparity,
- substitution of use of electricity for heating with other power products,
- loss reduction in electricity distribution,
- reduction of self consumption in EPS facilities, especially in thermal power plants,
- stimulating the use of energy saving devices and materials.
In cooperation with competent ministries and state institutions, other measures and activities shall be undertaken which will contribute to reduction of energy consumption for heating and to more rational consumption (improved insulation, improved metering devices for consumers to manage consumption and improve services, consumer education through informational programs and media campaigns, etc.).
Electricity losses reduction in distribution network
The reduction of still very high losses in distribution will be achieved by:
- more efficient reduction of technical and non-technical losses (theft) of electricity and their conversion into regular consumption,
- construction of priority network facilities, primarily of new substations, transmission lines and low voltage network,
- activation of existing and installation of new devices for reactive power compensation
- modernization of metering system for remote meter reading and consumption management
- procurement and installation of 2,400,000 new meters
- improvement in technical and business accounting system and collection